Grain Markets Ignore USDA

Still reeling from a shocking U.S. Department of Agriculture report two weeks ago, farmers anxiously awaited the USDA’s newest outlook on this year’s corn, wheat, and soybean crops on Thursday morning.

After this spring’s devastating flooding and late planting, most market watchers expect that this year’s corn and soybean acreage and yields will be far lower than previously projected.

However, the USDA left acreage figures at the elevated levels from last report and left projected crop yields essentially unchanged, creating a larger supply outlook than most people expected.

Despite this, markets took off, ignoring the U.S. government’s data, with corn and soybeans returning to their high levels from two weeks ago. Current hot and dry weather is putting stress on the growing crops, adding to concerns about smaller harvests this fall.

Meanwhile, the newest report showed bullish figures for the wheat markets, despite ongoing expectation for a bumper crop. Wheat production from global competitors like Canada, Russia, and the European Union is expected to drop, boosting demand for U.S. exports. Additionally, the relatively high price for corn compared to wheat will encourage livestock producers to feed their animals high-protein wheat instead of corn given the minor price disparity.

As of midday Friday, November soybeans traded for $9.23 per bushel, December corn traded for $4.56, and December Kansas City wheat was worth $4.84.